Two mini leagues with a two horse race.
The 2011-12 Spanish La Liga, like the previous five editions, is essentially two divisions that run simultaneously - the first with two teams and the other with the remaining 18. One division, in essence, sits above the other but its exclusivity is such that it might as well be a separate entity altogether. So, in practice Real Madrid and Barcelona will be fighting for the top spot, among themselves, while everyone else in the league fights for third place.
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| Yup, They'll win the big eared jug again. |
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| They will be champions. Finally. |
Narrowing of the Gap:
- Although Barcelona, believe it or not, has gotten even better, Real has almost caught up, improving in spades. Whereas Barcelona used to be several levels above Real, the latter are now just around the corner on the same floor. Between tha pair, previous games always looked to be going Barcelona's way but now are a toss up. Real has shown the ability to attack, retain possession and even dictate the flow of the game.
Depth:
- Barcelona has the best first XI and perhaps the best XV but Real have the best squad, having acquired even more depth this summer.
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| Fabio Coentrao will add to Real's depth. |
- Barcelona's manager is a decent, mostly calm, inspirational leader who uses intelligence and superior man management to get the best out of his team. Real Madrid's manager is the best tactician and motivator in the game but relies on mental head games to unsettle and unhinge his opponents. He has already gotten under the skin of Barcelona and their manager a couple of times this year. What price one or both them eventually cracking under his constant barrage of barbs, innuendo and lies.
Law of Averages:
- Barcelona are bound to have a complete breakdown in form, reversal of fortunes or injury epidemic at some point over the next eight months - possibly all three. Real could then take advantage and usurp them.
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| Anywhere else Jose would be fire but at Real this is another weapon in his arsenal. |
- Jose Mourinho is a classic spoiler who earns his worth, when up against better, more skillful teams by preventing them from playing. Although not popular, he has been given the backing of the Real supremo who got rid of managing director, giving the Sulky One complete control and power. So you just know he will stick to this tactic again, and again, and eventually get it right. Ominously for Barcelona, he has done it before, besting them famously with Chelsea in 2005 and Inter in 2010.
Priority:
- Finally, Barcelona, in their quest for a historical legacy of greatness may focus a bit more on the Champions' League than on La Liga, having won the latter three times on the trot. Their quest for a third Champions' league win in four years (and fourth in seven) is the main prize their squad has their eye on. It may lead them to loosening their grip on the crown altogether.
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| More of the this, all season. |
One must mention something else at this stage that goes a long way towards explaining the gap in stature and financial comfort between the top two and the rest. In Spain, Barcelona and Real Madrid negotiate TV rights on their own, separately from the rest of the league. As a result, not only do they get a much better rate of return, the extra money allows them to attract top talent, which makes them, in turn, more marketable and so the vicious circle continues. Moreover, both Barcelona and Real Madrid have massive depts, which shall go unheeded, despite UEFA's bombastic Fair Play regulations.
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The race for third place is what all the other 18 teams are fighting for. Valencia and Villarreal were the clear favourites for this, but they both lost their playmakers (Juan Mata leaving Valencia earlier this week - another reason I do these previews this late) and have slipped back into the pack somewhat.
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| Villarreal will impress again. |
Finally, the first round of the season was postponed on account of a player strike as Spanish clubs have a tendency of not paying their players. Luckily, the LFP (Spanish League) and the players' union manager to reach a hasty accord this past week and the upcoming weekend's games. However the fact remains that the Spanish football structure is unstable, top heavy and does not support an equitable distribution of wealth.
Projected standings with keynotes for each club:
1 - Real Madrid - With Barcelona taking their eye off the ball in March and April, slightly, Jose's charges will nip in and take the final step to the crown.
2 - Barcelona - After leading the league till March, a run of draws will allow Real to just pip them to the post. Will win the Champions' League though.
3 - Valencia - Sergio Canales, Daniel Parejo, Pablo Hernandez, Pablo Piatti, Roberto Soldado and Ever Banega, under Unai Emery spells a solid season of growth and consolidation.
4 - Athletic Bilbao - Solid all-round squad with a sprinkling of world class talent plus Marcelo Bielsa, who is worth two spots in the standings alone.
5 - Villarreal - Cazorla is a big loss, but with Nilmar, Giuseppe Rossi, Ruben Cani and their defence all intact, the Yellow Submarine are en excellent outfit
6 - Malaga - Excellent all round squad with settled veterans and eye catching newcomers under the astute Manuel Pellegrini.
7 - Atletico Madrid - Diego Forlan and Radamel Falcao, let me repeat, Forlan and Falcao. With Jose Reyes and Antonio Lopez in reserve. Shaky defence that Manzano will have to fix.
8 - Sevilla - A decent defence, a good midfield and a prolific Alvaro Negredo with (an aging) Frederic Kanoute up front and helmed by Marcelino.
9 - Espanyol - Malaga's gain is Espanyol's loss. Decent team, well drilled under former player Mauricio Pocchetino, but lacking cutting edge now that Pablo Osvaldo has gone.
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| Daniel Guiza is back from Fenerbahce |
10 - Getafe - The return of Daniel Guiza to these shores makes a massive difference to the team as the team may be a dark horse for the top eight even. Have plenty of cash.
11 - Real Sociedad - The good - Xabi Prieto and Antoine Griezmann. The bad - Joseba Llorente is now over 30 and aging. The result - solid midtable.
12 - Sporting Gijon - You may not win anything with kids but you can definitely do well. A decent season but on account of Getafe and Sociedad's ascents, a slight step back.
13 - Racing Santander - Appointing Hector Cuper is a shrewd choice but the team is still somewhat patchy. Not as bad as reported elsewhere, not as good as new owners hope.
14 - Osasuna - Raul Garcia is a great (re)arrival, Javier Camunas is a big loss. The team's not terrible but neither is it good. Just like its finishing position.
15 - Real Betis - Back in the top flight after a spell in Segunda A, the Benito Villamarin side will consolidate their position back in the top flight.
16 - Real Zaragoza - One of the most nondescript attacks in the league, destined to emulate their manager's knack of grimly holding on with negative football.
17 - Mallorca - Despite the efforts of Michael Laudrup and youngsters Emilio Nsue, Kevin Martinez and an unsettled Jonathan De Guzman, the team will flirt with the drop.
18 - Granada - Being Udinese's loan farm can only do so much, especially when the parent club calls to reclaim talent. A narrow relegation beckons.
19 - Levante - Last season's close shave simply masked the obvious. When your notable players are a 35 year old Juan Fran and Asier Del Horno, the omens are not good.
20 - Rayo Vallecano - Too little to suggest anything other than a return to Segunda B. Especially now that Emiliano Armenteros is gone to Sevilla and is replaced by the aged Raul Tamudo.
Still to come, at the close of the transfer window, La Liga's meet and greet.
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