Saturday, September 17, 2011

Europhiles Notebook - Euro Qualifying Crucial Matches

With some of the groups decided and the frantic race for final spots reaching the home stretch, these are the key matches remaining in qualifying for the 2012 European Championships.


Group A - Turkey v Germany - October 7 2011

Qualification is on the line for the Turks as a win would see them out of reach for Belgium. In addition this game is all about pride with many millions of expatriate and newly arrived Turks calling Germany their home, despite holding on to their proud culture. The irony that many of Germany's clubs, as well as national senior and youth teams feature talented and pivotal young Turkish talent, is not lost on those who will be watching. Finally the game gives Turkey a massive chance to regain an measure a parity and exact revenge against the team that eliminated them in the semi-finals of both World Cup 2002 and Euro 2008.



If Turkey win they are through as group runner's up, if they lose it comes to down to their final game against Azerbaijan (who beat them earlier). Germany have already won the group.



Look out for: Toni Kroos and Matt Hummels for Germany, Arda Turan and Hamit Altintop for Turkey.


Group B - Slovakia v Russia - October 7 2011

With the Slovak's complete meltdown in both games against a handy Armenian side, their qualification, which looked rather comfortable, now hangs in the balance. In addition, a group which looked like Russia's for the taking, is going down to the final round of games to be decided. A win for Russia and they are home safe and dry, with just a home win over Andorra still to be played. It also more or less eliminates Slovakia. A win for the Slovaks however throws the game wide open and gives the World Cup 2006 round of 16 participants a tricky chance at Macedonia to gain progression. A draw however, punishes both teams while allowing Ireland back in the frame, who have two relatively easy games still to come. Just one game but three different results and nine different combinations.


Irish fans will be happy no matter what happens. In fact both teams above will hope Ireland drop points in Andorra.


Keep an eye on: Marek Hamsik and Miroslav Stoch for Slovakia, Yuri Zhirkov and Igor Anyukov for the Russians.

Group C - Slovenia v Serbia - October 11 2011

Essentially Serbia only get going for games against the top teams whom they are expected to lose to. So, it is entirely possible, especially with Italy already through, for the Serbs to win their home game against the latter and seal the runner's up spot. However, with Italy hungry again with a whole generation of young Azzurri stars, Serbia could very well lose that game. Which means the race for the runner's up spot comes down to this game between regional rivals, replete with political history as Slovenia were the first republic to secede from the Serb dominated Yugoslavia in the Balkan wars. And with Slovenia having made almost as many World Cup and Euro appearances as Serbia, in the last 12 years, including last year in South Africa, the game is practically a dead heat. Especially in Ljubljana.


Serbia need just a point from this game, irrespective of their result against Italy.


Watch for: Zoran Tosic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in Serbia's midfield, Bojan Jokic and Josip Ilicic for Slovenia.

Group D - France v Bosnia - October 11 2011

This group was always a tussle between these two, especially with France in disarray after the World Cup and Bosnia's talented generation of players coming together with some exciting young additions.  However France although dejected were not depleted and drew on their deep reservoir of talent to turn things around and bring the group to bear after a tepid start. Bosnia on the other hand disappointed before being tossed out of UEFA and FIFA for a spell, before a hasty re-induction; all on account of political 'irregularities'. Yeah, whatever that means. Anyway, after eight games each and three straight wins for the Bosnians, a crunch match awaits in Paris in the final round of games, with all due respect to Albania and Luxembourg.


The game's winner takes the group, the loser the playoff spot.


Identify: Yann M'Vila and Karim Benzema in the French blue, Edin Dzeko and Miralem Pjanic for Bosnia.

Group E - Sweden v Netherlands - October 11 2011

Holland have already sealed their group with what looks like their third straight perfect qualification. Talk about consistency and belief while giving short shrift to those who denigrate the Dutch Eredivisie, where almost the entire Dutch team has been raised and brought into the limelight, before their money spinning moves abroad. Anyway, standing in their way is a mechanical Swedish team that needs valuable points in its own push for progression. And with the game at Solna, the advantage, however slight, is with Sweden.  Expect a high octane match however as The Oranje like to dominate everyone, especially the Germans and and their Nordic rivals. And remember the Euro 2004 QF shootout win by Holland, ... over Sweden.


Holland will want the win for another perfect record while Sweden need a win to guarantee second.


Keep track of: Ibrahim Afellay and Erik Pieters for Holland, Zlatan Ibrahmovic and Kim Kallstrom for Sweden.

Group F - Greece v Croatia - October 7 2011

Greece have dominated the group with a consistent show of defensive resilience (what else is new) and a surprising attacking resurgence. That is, until they unexpectedly ran aground in Latvia, drawing 1-1 in the last match, after six straight wins. This allowed Croatia to nip back in front, after having played second fiddle but remained in touch all campaign. So, with the group on the line, the Croats, who are ridiculously talented but temperamentally suspect, will be visiting Athens to decide top spot. The Greeks will be ready, emotionally charged and tactically honed but a great game awaits. A draw would suit the Croats better than their rivals as they have a home tie to close the group out with, while Greece will still have to visit Georgia. Both teams are through the playoffs at least with either team dropping to third mathematically impossible.


So, the game winner takes the group and the loser gets second.


Introduce yourself to: George Fetfatzidis and Sotiris Ninis for Greece, Ivan Strinic and Daniel Pranjic for the Croats.

Group G - Switzerland v Montenegro - October 11 2011

The Swiss are always competent qualifying opponents and despite their limited talent have made a fist of progression from Group G. England has already sealed the group so the runner's up spot is up for grabs. Although Montenegro are slight favourites at this stage with a three point margin on the Swiss but with a visit of England still to come. Given that Switzerland can look to claim three points from their trip to Wales, the two combatants can well be locked on points when they square off in Geneva on October 11. The Swiss are always tough to beat at home and will bank on a clean sheet while nicking the winning goal. And given that Montenegro have the tiebreaker on the back of their 1-0 win in Podgorica in August last season, they will be perfectly content with a draw.


Switzerland need to win to reach the playoffs, anything else and it's Montenegro.


Look out for: Xherdan Shaqiri and Gokhan Inler in the Swiss red, Stefan Savic and Mirko Vucinic for the Black Mountaineers.

Group H - Denmark v Portugal - October 11 2011

With three teams still in with a shout to win the group outright, this has been the most entertaining group for neutrals. Norway started really well and Portugal faltered before the two converged on Denmark in a heap at the top with 13 points each. However with Norway having played a game more and just a home tie with Cyprus remaining, both the Danes and Portuguese will fancy their chances at going into this game with a shot at the group's summit. With the tie in Denmark, and both teams capable of winning their penultimate round, Norway, irrespective of their result against Cyprus, could be eliminated altogether, going potentially from first place in the group to third. Moreover, if either team wins this match, the loser could drop down to third as well. So will they pick a mutually beneficial draw instead, if going into this match on 16 points each ?


Denmark have lost to Portugal earlier in the qualifiers, so they have to win this match to win the group. Portugal, have other options.


In action: Christian Eriksen and Anders Lindegaard for Denmark, Fabio Coentrao and Danny for Portugal.

There is a possibility that four former Yugoslav Republics will make it to the Euro 2012 Qualifiers with one even topping their group.

International football is alive and well !




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