Tuesday, August 9, 2011

2011-12 German Bundesliga Preview

It could be a repeat.

Watching Borussia Dortmund rip open Hamburg, seemingly at will, enroute to a crushing opening day win, one can only conclude that the current Bundesliga champions are here to stay.



Weakened, on paper, by the loss of playmaking attacking midfielder Nuri Sahin, but no less redoubtable on the pitch, Borussia Dortmund seem to have started this season with the same momentum and drive that saw them finish the last. Their attacking vibrancy, fulsome running and full-pitch pressing were all there to be seen, as they hit the ground running to utterly destroy a tepid Hamburg side, who still seem to be in pre-season. A late consolation aside, Dortmund showed everyone why they are the reigning champions and look intent on sweeping all before them again. Their defence and goalkeeper are intact. Manager Jurgen Klopp returns. Their youthful core (at an average age of 24.1 years, they were the youngest side in Germany last year) and enthusiastic vibrancy are back. As are their attacking tendencies, both rampant and potent. With the promising youngster Ilkay Gundogan in from Nuremberg to replace the departed, Sahin, they even have a pacy attacking midfielder of Turkish descent playing in the front third of the pitch. And with the Hamburg game showing that the Black-Yellows have lost none of their rhythm, it could be a vintage year at Signal Iduna park - again.

However, standing in their way are several of the other German heavyweights, none of them impressed by Dortmund, and all of whom itching to fight back, after having suffered nightmares in 2010-11. Leading the pack are perennial contenders and champions practically every other year - Bayern Munich. The Bavarian giants had a terrible first half of the season, with their top brass conceding the title before Christmas; before storming back up the table to claim a Champions' League qualifying spot with some of the best form in the second half of the season. They are well heeled, strongly equipped and have some of the most powerful men in German football on their side.


With a squad brimming with talent, a new manager in the experienced Jupp Heynckes, Munich are probably the silent favourites for the title and will be seething at what they consider their trophy, nestling in the trophy cabinet at Westphalia. Since 1994, there has been only one two year spell which did not see Bayern win the Bundesliga. In that span Die Roten have never gone more than one year without winning the Bundesliga. They have several matchwinners and retain the swagger and confidence that top teams often bring to the table. They will definitely not tail off two seasons in a row and should embark on a run that cuts a swathe through the division. Having missed out last year, Bayern are second favourites to reclaim the giant shield.






Bayer Leverkusen are outside bets for the title and have a decent squad that was consistent while finishing second last year. And while they played in the Europa League last season and progressed to the knockout stages, the Champions' League is a different level that will provide a massive distraction. New manager Robin Dutta performed miracles last season in getting unfancied Freiburg up to sixth for the better part of the season before they settled in ninth and will be tasked with delivering relative success on a much larger stage. However Bayer do not have the matchwinning pedigree required to sustain a prolonger title challenge and lack the all round quality and confidence that Dortmund and Munich possess. Winning a title is as much as believing in it as it is performing and Bayer may lack the belief required to go all the way.  A finish in the top four beckons.


Projected standings with keynotes for each club:


1 - Borussia Dortmund - Same coach, team, system and mentality in place, Sahin's loss has been tempered. Klopp's youth core are best on paper.


2 - Bayern Munich - Plenty of class and talent, not the same ruthless consistency. Experience of manager Heynckes is an x-factor.


3 - Werder Bremen - Markus Rosenberg brings potent finishing, Marko Marin and Mehmet Ekici the creativity and Thomas Schaaf, has refreshed the team by clearing out the deadwood.


4 - Bayer Leverkusen - Without Arturo Vidal, creative spark is missing. Still enough talent and cohesiveness though, to compete at the top of the table.


5 - Stuttgart - Sketchy at the back, scary at the front, Bruno Labbadia's team will feature in few drawn games this season.


6 - Wolfsburg - Strong in attack, decent at the back but not enough ball winners or creators in the middle. Possess the Felix Magath factor.


7 - Hannover - A team of hardworking middleweights just got some more of the same in the offseason and will almost repeat last season's heroics.




8 - Schalke - With Lewis Holtby, Jan Moravek and Christian Fuchs, a decent spine has been galvanised. Still ropey at the back and Manuel Neuer isn't there to rescue them.


9 - Kaiserslautern - Still have one of the best local playmakers in Christian Tiffert but have lost their attacking focus with Srdjan Lakic gone to Wolfsburg.

10 - Freiburg - Still retain Papiss Demba Cisse, the division's most explosive forward. Keep him fit and the rest working together and the top ten is again possible.

11 - Mainz - Having lost both Holtby and Andre Schurrle, attacking options are limited, but the core has been augmented and style under coach Thomas Tuchel retained.

12 - Nuremberg - To much bloodletting for even the most fruitful of youth programmes to stem. Will drop down this season.



13 - TSG Hoffenheim - Despite the money, they have steadily lost the momentum of previous seasons. Ghana's Prince Tagoe is their highest profile purchase.

14 - Hamburg - Weak at the back, effete up front - now they have lost their best defender, Joris Mathijsen and most experienced forward, Ruud Van Nistelrooy.

15 - Cologne - With a perilously thin squad that has been stripped of whatever loan and bench cover it had, a difficult season ahead awaits.

16 - Hertha BSC - More than likely going straight back down, not enough quality to compete and the youth reserves are somewhat bare.

17 - Borussia Moenchengladbach - With a weak squad and questionable transfers in, they will not avoid the drop for the third time in a row by winning a playoff.

18 - Augsburg - Out of their depth, what little talent they had was stripped just after gaining promotion. A fall run will be buried under a winter demise.

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Still to come - German Bundesliga Meet and Greet at end of August, at the close of the Transfer Window.


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